One analyst think that they can, based on Phil Schiller, Apple’s SVP Marketing, comment at the trial “Each new generation sold approximately equal to all previous generations combined.”
Horace Dediu from Asymco put the rule to the test using some guess work and publicly known data he checked the historical iPhones sales data to validate this claim. The rule seems to hold well all the way down to the iPhone 4S which is still on the market and is currently only half way through.
This leaves us with one big question… how many iPhone 5 will Apple sale? Based on today’s data, the cumulative total would have to be greater than 250 million units!
Based on this data Apple can see a minimum of about 170 million iPhone 5 through mid 2013. Outselling the entire Samsung Smartphone product line, but more important fixing the NAND market. 170 million units represents about 70 million units increase over the iPhone 4S if Apple continue to sell it at its current run rate, with about 27GB average projected capacity for the iPhone 5 (that is if Apple continues with 16, 32 and 64GB and will not increase to 128GB) Apple will consume an addition of 1,890,000,000GB which will bring the NAND market to a natural shortage taking the need for production cut backs and will increase NAND prices for everyone else.
The sooner Apple will release its next generation iPhone the better it will be for the NAND market as well for Apple as it sees decline in its iPhone sales, however with such high volumes if Apple is planning on launching the iPhone 5 on September 21st, based on Apple’s past launch sales data they can see as much as 50 million units sold to the end of the year, as we are coming close to the rumored launch date, production of the iPhone 5 should have already been started so this makes me wonder where does Apple source its NAND Flash, after all, all the major suppliers are cutting their production, which doesn’t make any sense. Unless Apple planning an alternative storage solution, cloud based maybe?